Donald Trump yesterday judged the ceasefire to be on “mechanical life support” after he slammed Iran’s response to a US proposal to end the war indefinitely, while Tehran countered that it is ready to retaliate if attacked.
<p
After more than a month of truce, the diplomatic process between Washington and Tehran appears to have reached an impasse–both sides have been exchanging proposals through Pakistan to consolidate the cease-fire, to no avail so far.
The Iranian counterproposal to the latest U.S. offer is “rubbish,” U.S. President Trump threw out, addressing reporters at the White House. “The ceasefire is on mechanical respiratory support, like when the doctor comes in and tells you: ‘sir, your loved one has exactly a 1 percent chance of living,'” he added.
On the other side, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bayr Galibaf countered that Iran’s armed forces are ready to “retaliate” and “teach a lesson” to any attack, adding that anyone who attacks “will be surprised.”
During a telephone interview with a Fox News reporter, US President Trump also said he intends to resume the operation to escort ships seeking to leave the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed after the US-Israeli war against it was launched on February 28.
It had announced its suspension on May 5, the day after it began, speaking of “great progress” in negotiating with Iran to close a deal–before shaking its stern hand yesterday.
The Wall Street Journal reported at the same time that the United Arab Emirates conducted military operations against Iran in April, targeting oil facilities on Lavan Island, an Iranian territory in the Gulf.
<p
The Emirates’ direct involvement, which has not been confirmed by Abu Dhabi, may mark a turning point in the escalation in the region. To date, none of the Gulf’s Arab monarchies had been officially declared a belligerent. Only the US and Israel were known to have been involved in attacks against Tehran.
“Legal rights”
“The only thing we asked” is that “Iran’s legitimate rights” be respected, Iranian diplomatic spokesman Esmail Bagaei said yesterday.
Before listing the Islamic Republic’s claims: “the end of the war in the region”, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and “to release assets belonging to the Iranian people that have been unjustly frozen for years.”
According to the WSJ, which cited sources with knowledge of the matter, the Iranian proposal called for a gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a simultaneous lifting of the US blockade.
<p
Always according to the newspaper’s sources, Iran is reportedly referring to negotiations on its nuclear power programme after 30 days. It is offering to “dilute” some of the highly enriched uranium it possesses but refuses to destroy its equipment and a 20-year moratorium on the enrichment process.
The US, Israel and other Western governments accuse Tehran of seeking to acquire a nuclear arsenal, something the other side has denied for decades, insisting it will not relinquish its right to have a civilian nuclear power programme.
The impasse over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, strategic for global hydrocarbon supplies, pushed black gold prices back up yesterday.
At the close of markets yesterday, a barrel of North Sea Brent, the benchmark variety, was up 2.88% at $104.21. At around 04:00 (GMT), a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), US benchmark variety, for delivery in June, had reached $98.69 (+0.69%).
Danger of a “humanitarian crisis”
For the head of Saudi oil giant ARAMCO, the war, which has claimed the lives of thousands of people, the vast majority of them in Iran and Lebanon, has caused the “biggest energy shock” the planet has ever known.
“Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, it would take months for the market to rebalance,” Amin Nasser said, predicting that markets would not return to normal until 2027.
Beyond hydrocarbons, Hormuz is a critical artery for transporting fertilizer–one-third of the volumes sold internationally pass through there.
Blocking it risks causing within “a few weeks” a new “major humanitarian crisis,” warned Zorzi Moreira da Silva, the Portuguese head of a U.N. task force charged with ensuring the free movement of these critical raw materials, speaking to Agence France-Presse.
Tehran “gives no indication that it will surrender”, on the contrary it seems to “count on rising global oil prices and product shortages to force Trump to end the war without securing the major concessions especially on the (Iranian) nuclear program he is pursuing”, the US-based Soufan Center think tank estimated.
In Lebanon, the other main theater of the war, where a cease-fire has supposedly been in place since April 17, Israel and the Iranian-affiliated Hezbollah movement continue to trade blows.
New talks, which in theory would pave the way for peace negotiations between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, are expected to be held the day after Thursday and Friday in Washington.
.
