Greece expects good news next Wednesday on the size of the 2025 primary surplus on which to “build” the arsenal of new measures to support citizens from the effects of the war in the Middle East.

On April 22, Eurostat and ELSTAT are expected to announce the final figures for the 2025 primary surplus, which is expected to show, for the fourth consecutive year, a significant overshoot of the targets.

The upward revision of the primary surplus figures has already been announced by Economy and Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, while Bloomberg, in a report on Greece, said the surplus will be in the range of 4.8%-4.9% of GDP, compared to the original budget target of 3.7%. According to the publication, the fiscal overperformance will continue into 2026, exceeding the seven-year target of 2.8% of GDP.

In the same vein, the International Monetary Fund this week in its report on Greece ( Fiscal Monitor) predicted high primary surpluses for 2025 and for the next six years and a dynamic debt reduction to 110.9% of GDP at the end of 2031 from 145.7% in 2025. In terms of the primary surplus, the IMF expects it to be 4.4% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 and 2028 respectively.

The strong growth of the Greek economy, despite the impact of the war in the Middle East and increased revenues from curbing tax evasion, are boosting the country’s fiscal performance. This is the basis for the policy of supporting citizens in the face of higher energy prices and rising inflation caused by the Middle East crisis. The final figures for the 2025 primary surplus will have to take into account the European rule on the annual expenditure of each member state in order to determine the exact fiscal space available to the government for the new support measures.

Since the start of the war in Iran, the government has put in place two packages of support measures, mainly targeting the vulnerable. These are, firstly, a cap on gross profit margin in the fuel chain and supermarket staples and then announced a subsidy at the pump for diesel purchases, a fuel pass and support for fertiliser. Going forward, two factors are expected to determine support policy: The amount of fiscal space and the duration of the war in the Middle East. As Kyriakos Pierrakakis said in an interview with ERT television, “We will wait to see the final figures, we will wait to see what the available fiscal space is, we will correlate our assessment with what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, with what is happening in the coordinates of this energy crisis and we will certainly intervene accordingly.”

We will wait to see what the available fiscal space is, we will correlate our assessment with what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, with what is happening in the coordinates of this energy crisis and we will certainly intervene accordingly.

The minister clarified that a critical parameter in all of this will be the duration of the crisis. He said the facts will be different “if the crisis lasts another two weeks, it will be different if it lasts another two or three months.”