The 2025 primary surplus paves the way for a new round of support measures, with the government awaiting the final “signal” from Brussels to determine the scope and targeting of measures for households and businesses.

The estimates put the surplus close to 5 percent of GDP, a level higher than the budget target, raising expectations of additional fiscal space.

The crucial milestone is Wednesday 22 April, when Eurostat will release the final data. From then on, the Athens-Brussels negotiation on what part of the surplus can be channelled into the economy officially starts. In any case, no intervention will move outside the EU’s fiscal rules.

It is not only the amount but also the “quality” of the surplus that is crucial. If it turns out that the increased revenues have permanent and structural characteristics, then the argument for greater flexibility is strengthened. Conversely, in the case of cyclical performance, the room for manoeuvre will be limited and more conservative.

Support measures

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After “locking in” the available fiscal space, the economic staff will be asked to allocate resources between three main directions:

  • direct aid to address the energy shortages triggered by the war in the Middle East,
  • creation of a fiscal “cushion” due to geopolitical uncertainty; and
  • shaping a package of tax cuts and income support in view of the TIF.

New cycle of support measures

Specific scenarios are already on the table. Priority is given to measures that will act as a buffer against fuel and energy price increases. An extension of the subsidy on diesel for another month is being considered, but there seems to be no intention of deeper intervention at the pump.

At the same time, the possibility of a new Fuel Pass cycle remains open if petrol prices remain high. In the same context, the Market Pass is also coming back to the fore as rising inflation brings back the need for targeted food support.

The “quiver” also includes the possible activation of subsidies on electricity and gas if there is a new energy boom, as well as the continuation of controls and caps on profit margins on basic goods.

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