Greece’s public debt will be significantly reduced in 2026 and in the following years until 2031, based on high primary fiscal surpluses, the International Monetary Fund predicts in its Fiscal Monitor report released today.

At a time when the public debt of the world’s developed economies rose to 108% of GDP in 2025 and will follow an upward trajectory, reaching 114.8% in 2031, in Greece it is projected to fall dramatically over the same period from 145.7% of GDP to 110.9%, below average.

Greek debt is projected to fall to 136.9% in 2026 and 130.3% in 2027, continuing its downward trajectory until 2031, which is the last year of the IMF’s projections.

The peak of the developed economies’ debt growth is the US, whose debt is expected to soar from 123.9% in 2025 to 142.1% in 2031.

Eurozone debt is also projected to rise, but at a more moderate pace, reaching 89.7% in 2031 from 87.1% in 2025.

The eurozone’s debt is also projected to rise, but at a more moderate pace, reaching 89.7% in 2031 from 87.1% in 2025.

Globally, government debt rose to 94% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach 100% in 2029, a year earlier than the IMF expected just a year ago, with China’s rising debt playing a particularly important role. “Global debt dynamics remain unfavourable. While debt increases are concentrated in China and the US, weaknesses exist more broadly,” the Fund said.

At the base of the rapid deceleration of Greek debt are primary surpluses, which are projected to gradually decline through 2031 but remain high. In particular, the primary surplus is projected to decline from 4.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and further to 3.1% in 2027, to reach 2.7% in 2031.

Over the same period, the eurozone is expected to have a primary deficit, falling from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2031.

In the same period, the eurozone is expected to have a primary deficit, falling from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2031.

As global debt is on a clear upward trajectory, the IMF warns that the shock of the war in the Middle East requires a disciplined fiscal response from countries. The conflict “heightens global uncertainty at a time of pressured public finances, underscoring the need for policies that preserve future stability,” it says.

With debt already high in many countries – as the pandemic and the crisis in energy and food prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have preceded it – fiscal support measures need to be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases,” the Fund notes.

“Policymakers need to understand that markets are becoming less forgiving. Over the past year, investors have increasingly questioned assumptions of unlimited borrowing capacity – even for large developed economies. Episodes of new pricing in Japan, the US and parts of Europe reflect increased sensitivity to fiscal slippages and weak medium-term frameworks,” the IMF notes.