The Greek economy is expected to maintain positive growth rates over the next two years, according to the latest OECD report. The organisation forecasts GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, rates lower than initial estimates but strong enough to support economic activity.
Disbursements from the Recovery Fund are expected to play a decisive role, boosting investment, while employment growth, tax cuts and energy support measures will support private consumption.
The OECD expects exports to start to recover from the second half of 2026 as international demand strengthens. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to move to 4.2% in 2026 due to high energy prices, before easing to 2.6% in 2027.
The report notes that the Greek economy is already affected by developments in the Middle East. Rising energy prices and the impact of the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing the cost of imports and putting pressure on the economy, given the country’s high dependence on oil and gas.
Despite external challenges, the OECD forecasts that public debt will continue to decline, reaching 129.8% of GDP in 2027, thanks to high primary surpluses and prudent fiscal policy.
The agency also stresses the need to limit tax exemptions and continue anti-tax evasion measures to create additional fiscal space for investment in areas such as health and education. At the same time, it recommends the phasing out of exceptional energy support measures when conditions allow.
Finally, special emphasis is placed on the energy transition. The OECD considers it crucial to accelerate investment in renewable energy and reduce dependence on fossil fuels by simplifying permitting and boosting investment in energy renovation and electrification.
