The release by Eurostat and ELSTAT of the best fiscal performance achieved by Greece in 2025 relative to budget targets opens the door for the elaboration of the new relief package to be announced by the government at the Thessaloniki International Economic Forum next September.

The new support measures of 500 million euros are expected to help the economy. announced by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis immediately after the announcement of the 2025 primary surplus last Wednesday, are the first step in the government’s overall planning to return positive fiscal performance to society this year and in 2027. Part of this planning is also the Prime Minister’s announcements at the TIF, the extent of which is beginning to take shape after the validation of the data on the increase in the 2025 primary surplus to 4.9% of GDP against a previous target of 3.7% of GDP. Based on these data, a total fiscal space ( after accounting for the constraints on public spending) of €1.7 billion for this year and next year is formed. Of this, 500 million euros are covered by the measures announced by the Prime Minister and specified by the Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis last week ( rent reimbursement to more people, 150 euros to families with children, an increase to 300 euros in aid for pensioners, etc.). 1.2 billion euros remain, of which 200 million euros will be allocated for new support measures this year and another 1 billion euros related to announcements for 2027.

Behind the government’s planning lies the strong performance of the Greek economy combined with the positive results of the measures to curb tax evasion. Despite the high cost of the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran, the Greek economy’s growth rate will remain at 2% this year after revising the initial target of 2.4%, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced. In fact, any seven-year revision of the GDP target will be covered by an upward revision to 2% from an initial forecast of 1.7% growth for 2027. Equalising the revisions also leads to an even higher primary surplus for 2026. This is why the new target set by the Ministry of Economy and Finance for the 2026 primary surplus is 3.2% of GDP from 2.8% of GDP. The target for the 2027 primary surplus is also set at 3.2% of GDP. The estimate for the level of government debt this year is also revised upwards to 136.8% of GDP from 138.2% and to 130.3% in 2027

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In the coming period, depending on developments on the war front and based on the fiscal data released, the Ministry of Economy and Finance will proceed with the composition of the TIF support measures. The government’s intention, as already announced, is that the main pillar of this package will be measures to support businesses and professionals.

Among the measures expected to be considered are:

-The abolition of the business registration fee for businesses, a key market demand. Note that the business tax has already been abolished from 2025 for self-employed persons.

– The reduction of the advance tax rate for small and medium enterprises. This rate is currently 80% of the income tax arising from the previous year’s profitability, while for start-ups this rate is 50% for the first three years.

– A new reduction in employer contributions in 2027, greater than the half-point already announced.