Two completely different results about the weather after Thursday give the two major forecast models according to Th. Kolydas.
The former EMY director and Star meteorologist in a post on X analyses the results of the two major forecasting models on the weather during the Easter days, noting that “they do not just disagree on the intensity of the phenomena, but on the very structure of the circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean”.
As the experienced meteorologist writes: “After Maundy Thursday, the two major forecast models disagree not just on the intensity of the phenomena, but on the very structure of the circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean.
The GFS insists on a more closed and deep upper low in the southwest of the country, a scenario that favours a more organised deterioration with a larger moisture supply and an increased likelihood of generalised events.”
“In contrast, the ECMWF retains the main disturbances further northeast, pointing to a more rapid passage of systems and a less organized episode for Greece. In other words, it’s not just a difference in position, but a difference in weather type,” he says.
This difference affects 4 things
“First, the location of the strongest upward moves. When the upper low is to the southwest, Greece often enters the favorable sector of the system where the atmosphere “works” more for producing phenomena. Conversely, when disturbances pass to the northeast, the upwelling field may be weaker or more patchy.
Second, moisture transport. The southwest low usually pulls warmer and wetter air masses inland, which increases the potential for showers and storms. In the ECMWF, this feeding seems much less effective.
Third, the duration of the events. A closed low in the southwest may give a slower and more persistent deterioration. Northeastern disturbances, by contrast, are more often associated with shorter passages.
Fourth, the geographic distribution. With the GFS, the chances of more western, southern and eastern parts being affected increase, depending on the exact trajectory. With ECMWF, the effects may be more limited or areas closer to the passage of the disturbances may be more favoured.
The video below clearly shows the parallel run of the models at 500 hPa where the professional meteorologist , and any citizen can see the different types of weather brought by each model.
The video below clearly shows the parallel run of the models at 500 hPa where the professional meteorologist , and any citizen can see the different types of weather brought by each model.
The easiest thing is to adopt a model and say this is how things will be. But what professional meteorologist would take the risk to inform us about Easter weather when they see these wide divergences?”
