The downward trend in public debt will not be derailed and the economy will continue to grow, even in cases of external “shocks”, according to credit rating agencies and international financial institutions that published reports on Greece in March.

Moody’s, DBRS and Scope affirmed Greece’s investment grade and its credit rating outlook, despite the unfavourable international environment from soaring energy and other commodity prices caused by the war in the Middle East.

The International Monetary Fund found that “Greece is well positioned to weather external shocks as public finances continue to strengthen, as evidenced by the rapid reduction in debt as a share of GDP, and fiscal policy is appropriately geared towards supporting household purchasing power and affordable home ownership.” The improvement in public finances “allows Greece to weather external headwinds while supporting sustainable growth and further reducing its debt,”

he added.

Moody’s noted in its report that Greece’s fiscal performance since the pandemic continues to exceed expectations and remains the key trump card in its credit rating. Primary budget surpluses have been significantly higher than targets over the past two years – at 4.7% of GDP in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 – as a result of economic growth above 2%, a steady reduction in tax evasion and control of public spending. These surpluses, combined with the early repayment of loans by Eurozone countries under the first memorandum over the past 10 years and the significant increase in nominal GDP, have led to a rapid reduction in public debt – from a high of 210% of GDP in 2020 to 145% in 2025.

The assessment of international agencies and the IMF is that progress on the tax evasion front and proper management of public spending will lead to primary surpluses in the coming years. The IMF sees a primary surplus of 3.6% for this year and 2.75% in the medium term, which would be consistent with a reduction in public debt to 110% of GDP in 2031. Moody’s expects primary surpluses above 3% in 2026-2027 and debt reduction to 140% in 2027.

Scope forecasts a rapid reduction in debt to 127% of GDP by 2030, with a slower decline thereafter to reach 120% in 2035, due to the impact of an ageing population and possible slowing growth.

“Greece’s macroeconomic performance remains strong and broadly in line with our expectations for sustainable investment-led growth,” Moody’s said, adding that the composition of growth in the Greek economy is increasingly favourable for the rating as private investment has been the main driver of the recovery in recent years.

The rating agencies and the IMF expect growth to slow from 2027 or 2028 as investment and Development Fund programs are completed, but they expect GDP to continue to grow at a pace that maintains the downward trend in debt. The DBRS forecasts an average growth rate of 1.75% through 2030, while the IMF projects 1.8% this year and 1.5% over the medium term, noting recent progress in addressing chronic structural impediments to growth.

The main takeaway from the houses is that it will take time to address chronic structural problems, such as the low employment rate and low productivity growth. In its recommendations, the IMF cited strengthening the digital transformation of the private sector, further reducing regulatory and administrative burdens to boost business growth and productivity, improving incentives to work, and targeted labour market policies and lifelong learning programmes