From the black sheep of the EU in the era of memoranda,due to excessive deficits, debt and a weak economy, Greece is now an example of strong growth and resilience despite the impact of the Middle East crisis.

This is the main conclusion of two reports released in recent days by the OECD and the Commission, despite their individual points on areas where more progress is needed.

The Commission has removed Greece from the list of countries with macroeconomic imbalances, ending all forms of surveillance on the country and ending a cycle that began 16 years ago. It is noteworthy, however, that at the same time that Greece is finally being taken off all forms of surveillance, 10 eurozone countries are in an excessive deficit procedure.

Economic experts and analysts believe that the main conclusion of the two reports not only sends another positive message to the markets in the current critical period of geopolitical instability due to the war in Iran, but also adds strong chances for a new upgrade, within the investment grade, of the Greek economy’s credit rating by the rating agencies in the new round next autumn.

This picture is already reflected in the bond markets: the yield on the 10-year Greek government bond is hovering at 3.7%, lower than that of Italy (3.78%). The yield on the 10-year French bond is in the 3.6% range, Spain’s at 3.45%, Portugal’s at 3.4%, while the British 10-year bond has shot up to 4.9%

The markets are pricing in, as the same players note, the level of growth of each economy and its dynamics, combined with the fiscal picture, which in this case is a strong card due to the high annual primary surpluses that are projected to continue this year and in the coming years and allow for rapid debt reduction.

The projections of the two reports are indicative:

The development

The OECD forecasts that Greece’s growth rate in 2026, despite the revisions imposed by the war in Iran, will rise to 1.9% this year and 2% in 2027. The Commission estimates that growth will run at 1.8% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

According to the Commission’s report, Germany will achieve a growth rate of 0.6% in 2026 and 0,9% in 2027, France 0.8% and 1.1% respectively, Italy 0.5% and 0.6% respectively

The Debt

The OECD report says our country’s public debt will fall this year to 135.8% of GDP, down from 146.5% last year, to be further reduced to 129.8% of GDP in 2027.

The Commission forecasts debt to reach 140.7% of GDP this year from 146.1% last year to fall to 134.4% of GDP in 2027.

The Commission says Italy’s debt will rise to 138.5% of GDP this year and even higher to 139.2% of GDP in 2027. France’s debt will rise to 118.1% of GDP this year to 120.9% of GDP in 2027.

Germany’s debt is projected at 65.8% of GDP this year and 68% of GDP in 2027