UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned today that the crisis in the Middle East, which is entering its third month, has already begun to produce serious global economic consequences, stressing that despite the fragile ceasefire, he remains deeply concerned about the restriction of navigation rights and freedoms in the Strait of Hormuz region. Because, he said, the restrictions on transit prevent the transport of oil, gas, fertilizer and other critical commodities, disrupting energy, transport, industrial production and food markets.

He said that even in the most favourable scenario, if the restrictions were lifted immediately, supply chains would take months to recover, which would prolong lower economic returns and higher prices.

In this case, global growth would fall from 3.4% to 3.1%, global inflation would rise from 3.8% to 4.4%, while global goods trade growth would be limited to around 2%, down from 4.7% last year, with noticeable disruptions to supply chains. Mr Guterres stressed that this is “the best possible scenario”.

In the second scenario, if the disruption continues until mid-year, global growth will fall to 2.5%, inflation will rise to 5.4%, 32 million people will be pushed into poverty, fertilizer shortages and reduced agricultural yields will be recorded, and another 45 million people will face extreme hunger, reversing years of growth gains overnight.

In the worst case scenario, if the severe disruptions persist until the end of the year, inflation will exceed 6%, growth will fall to 2% and, he warned, while the spectre of a global recession looms, with dramatic consequences for people, the economy, and political and social stability, especially in the most vulnerable societies.

The UN Secretary-General stressed that these consequences are not cumulative but exponential, noting that the longer this critical artery remains blocked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage and the higher the cost to humanity.

He said developing countries in particular would be disproportionately affected, as suffocating debt limits their ability to respond to the impact, with job losses, deeper poverty and greater hunger.

The Secretary-General sent a clear message to all sides, stressing that navigation rights and freedoms must be restored immediately, in accordance with Security Council Resolution 2817, essentially calling for the opening of the Straits, allowing the passage of all ships and allowing the global economy to breathe again.

He also stressed that reopening is not enough to be just physical, but requires conditions of security, predictability and insurance coverage for shipping, while calling on all parties to avoid actions that could undermine the ceasefire.

He said he remains in close contact with a number of parties involved, as does his personal envoy Jean Arnaud, noting that all interlocutors, regardless of their different approaches, recognize the need for a peaceful, comprehensive and lasting resolution of the conflict.

In terms of operational preparation, IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez is developing a framework for the safe removal of ships and sailors from the conflict zone, should it become safe, while the head of the United Nations Office for Project Services Jorge Moreira de Silva is travelling to the region to continue consultations on a possible humanitarian corridor should the worst-case scenarios materialise.

In conclusion, he stressed that now is the time for dialogue, solutions that will take the region away from the brink of crisis and measures that can pave the way for peace, noting that the whole world expects results.

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