The truce between the US and Iran is now in danger of collapsing, following Monday’s exchanges of fire in the strategic Strait of Hormuz region and the resumption of Iranian fire against one of its Gulf neighbours, the United Arab Emirates.
The new sharp rise in tensions, further testing the ceasefire in place since April 8, followed Donald Trump’s announcement that a US military operation would be conducted to restore traffic in the strait, which Iran has effectively closed.
The US president threatened, according to a Fox News report, that the Iranians would be pulverised, “wiped off the face of the earth” as he put it, if they targeted US warships.
Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has claimed the lives of thousands of people, the vast majority of them in the Islamic Republic and Lebanon, Tehran has imposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG consumed globally passes in peacetime.
About 20,000 seafarers are stranded there, according to a senior official of the UK Maritime Safety Agency UKMTO.
The attacks, the first against civilian installations in a Gulf country in more than a month, stirred concerns in markets, where oil prices have risen sharply.
The oil facility in Fujira, one of the few accessible in the region without crossing the straits, was targeted by a drone that caused a fire. Three Indian nationals were “injured”, though not seriously, according to local authorities.
The Emirates also reported being targeted by four cruise missiles “fired from Iran”, three of which were intercepted and one of which fell into the sea, according to the defence ministry. An oil tanker belonging to the national oil company ADNOC was also targeted by two Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles.
The country denounced the “dangerous escalation” and asserted that it reserved the right to retaliate.
“There is no military solution”
The Islamic Republic “had no plan to target the Emirates,” Iranian state television assured, citing a senior officer whom it did not name, Iranian state television assured. The same officer condemned the consequences of “US military adventurism”, referring to the operation to get merchant ships blockaded in the Gulf out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen condemned Iran’s “clear violation of [UAE] sovereignty and international law” and expressed solidarity “with the Emirati people”. British Prime Minister Kir Starmer “condemned” the attack and called for “de-escalation”. Saudi Arabia warned against further “military escalation” and urged “continued diplomatic efforts.”
In Oman, two people were wounded in an attack on a property in Buha, in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the sultanate’s state media.
“The events in the Strait of Hormuz make it clear that there is no military solution to a political crisis,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said via X. He called on the US to opt for the path of diplomacy rather than being tempted to “get trapped in a deadlock again.”
Divergences remain huge between the two countries’ governments and efforts to resume negotiations have so far failed, following the first–failed–meeting in Islamabad on April 11. Tehran said Sunday that it had received a response, the contents of which have not been made public, to its latest proposal for terms to end the war.
Oil prices rise further
Iran, which has imposed de facto transit fees in the Straits, has warned the US against any intervention. “If they intend to approach or infiltrate, they will be targeted and attacked,” warned General Ali Abdullahi, the chief of staff.
But the US president expressed satisfaction with the initiative, which is going “very well” according to him. He also reiterated for the umpteenth time that there is no question of Iran being allowed to acquire a nuclear arsenal–an ambition he denied Tehran has harbored for decades.
Two U.S.-flagged merchant ships “successfully” crossed the strait, according to the joint U.S. military command responsible for the Middle East (CENTCOM, “Central Command”).
According to CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper, US armed forces destroyed six Iranian flotillas and intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iranian armed forces against US warships and merchant ships.
According to CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper, US armed forces destroyed six Iranian flotillas and intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iranian armed forces against US warships and merchant ships.
Tehran denied that merchant ships crossed the strait and that the US military destroyed Iranian warships.
Seoul called it an “explosion” and fire on a South Korean ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
With this backdrop, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude, an international benchmark variety, closed Monday at $114.44 (+5.8%).
Expressing skepticism about the possibility of an immediate resumption of shipping and normalization of the strait situation, Eurasia Group analysts warn that if the disruption of shipping traffic is prolonged, prices will rise even further.
