Iran’s negotiating stance has hardened sharply since the start of the war, with the Revolutionary Guards wielding increasing influence in decision-making, and Tehran will demand significant concessions from the US if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said.
In any talks with the US, Iran will not only demand an end to the war, but also concessions that are likely to be red lines for US President Donald Trump – guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime damages and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.
The latter added that Tehran would also refuse to negotiate any restrictions on its ballistic missile program, an issue that was a red line for the Islamic Republic during the talks held until the US and Israel launched their attack on February 28.
Trump said yesterday that Washington has had “very good and constructive talks” with Tehran after more than three weeks of war, but Iran has publicly denied the existence of direct or indirect talks with the US side.
The three senior sources said Iran had only had preliminary discussions with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt on whether the basis for talks with the US to end the war existed.
A European official said yesterday that while there have been no direct negotiations between Iran and the US, Egypt, Pakistan and Gulf countries are carrying messages. A Pakistani official and another source also said yesterday that direct talks to end the war could be held in Islamabad this week.
If such talks are scheduled, Iran will send Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bayr Galibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to them, according to the three Iranian sources, warning that any decisions will be taken in the end by the hardline Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Earlier today, three senior Israeli officials said that although Trump seems determined to reach a deal, they believe it is unlikely that Tehran will agree to the US demands, which they believe will include cuts to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Iran’s use of ballistic missiles and its ability to essentially shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows, were its most effective responses to the military offensive launched by the US and Israel.
Iran could not agree to give up these assets without leaving itself defenseless against further attacks, analysts stress.
The Iranian side may also be reluctant to trust agreements with the US and Israel after Iran was attacked following an earlier deal last year, despite being involved in talks that were then underway. Tehran has also seen Israel continue to bomb Lebanon and Gaza after ceasefires there.
In Iran, domestic concerns also limit Tehran’s room for maneuver in negotiations, senior Iranian sources stressed.
These concerns include the increased influence of the Revolutionary Guards, uncertainty in leadership, with new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei yet to be seen in photos or video since his appointment, and a public narrative of war resilience.
